The Value of Forecasting

“The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent full of doubt.” – Bertrand Russell Jonah Lehrer asked recently: Do Political Experts Know What They’re Talking About? He talks with Dr. Philip Tetlock, who is … Continue reading

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Blaming the Referee

Over the past couple of days a number of politicians have jumped into attack S&P for their decision to downgrade United States sovereign debt. The main theme in these attacks has been that S&P missed sub-prime and therefore lacks credibility. … Continue reading

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Schiff on Debt Downgrade

Peter Schiff, love him or hate him, has a good video up reacting to Friday’s news. He sure feels vindicated. Is there any question as to the ratings trajectory of US government debt?

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Thoughts On Interest Rates

Here are some thoughts on the S&P debt downgrade as well as a discussion of interest rates. Firstly, I don’t think that interest rates are going to be that affected at least soon. If you are an investor, it is … Continue reading

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The New Central Bankers Dilemma

When I penned the song Central Bankers Dilemma in the summer of 2008, I was writing about the dilemma a central banker faces during a period of stagflation. When a central banker raises interest rates he constrains growth and when … Continue reading

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“Any business where you can sell a product and make money without having to worry how the product performs is going to attract sleazy people.” – Sy Jacobs in The Big Short

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Groupon in Vanity Fair

Vanity Fair has a great feature about Groupon and its CEO, Andrew Mason, in its current issue. I wrote about Groupon earlier, and this article delves deeper into some of the issues the company has faced managing the transition from … Continue reading

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No Winners in Debt Debate

Here is an excerpt from an interview with Bob Dylan I recently read in which he answered a question about politics. Q: What’s your take on politics? Dylan: Politics is entertainment. It’s a sport. It’s for the well groomed and … Continue reading

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Maximize Utility – a love song

More cheerful than Our Love is an Illiquid Asset.

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Planet Money Comes to DC

Last night, NPR’s Planet Money came to DC’s Sixth and I Historic Synagogue for a live event and taping. Alex Blumberg and Adam Davidson, interspersed with pre-recorded interview segments, painted a picture of two coexisting US economies: the “broken” economy … Continue reading

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