Monthly Archives: August 2011


I have been cleaning out my office in preparation for moving from DC to Chicago. I came across a small publication by GaveKal Research entitled Our Brave New World, published in 2005. It argued that the outlook for the global … Continue reading

Tagged 1 Comment


I recently spoke to my friend Chester Ntonifor who is a commodity analyst about the economy. Given the volatility of markets and fears of a double dip recession, I asked him where we could look in the commodity market to … Continue reading

Tagged , Leave a comment

Seinfeld Wisdom on Investing

Anyone who has been investing in the markets lately has surely lost money. Perhaps they should have listened to the investing advice of comedian Jerry Seinfeld… “I’m not an investor. People always tell me, you should have your money working … Continue reading

Tagged , Leave a comment

Gold Price Factors

When S&P downgraded the rating on US treasury bonds recently, investors sought two safe havens from the perceived risk resulting from the downgrade. Ironically, the first safe haven was treausuries themselves and the second was gold. Of both asset classes, … Continue reading

Tagged , , Leave a comment


“The country faces a fundamental disconnect between the services that people expect the government to provide…and the tax revenues that people are willing to send to the government to finance those services.” – Douglas Elmendorf, November 2009. Not much has … Continue reading

Tagged , Leave a comment

Grade Inflation and Keynesian Economics

When I was in high school I used to go away to summer camp in Massachusetts along with some friends from Montreal. Midway through every summer, kids would receive their report cards by mail. During the early years at summer … Continue reading

Tagged , Leave a comment

The Value of Forecasting

“The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent full of doubt.” – Bertrand Russell Jonah Lehrer asked recently: Do Political Experts Know What They’re Talking About? He talks with Dr. Philip Tetlock, who is … Continue reading

Tagged 1 Comment

Blaming the Referee

Over the past couple of days a number of politicians have jumped into attack S&P for their decision to downgrade United States sovereign debt. The main theme in these attacks has been that S&P missed sub-prime and therefore lacks credibility. … Continue reading

Tagged , , , , Leave a comment

Schiff on Debt Downgrade

Peter Schiff, love him or hate him, has a good video up reacting to Friday’s news. He sure feels vindicated. Is there any question as to the ratings trajectory of US government debt?

Tagged , , , Leave a comment

Thoughts On Interest Rates

Here are some thoughts on the S&P debt downgrade as well as a discussion of interest rates. Firstly, I don’t think that interest rates are going to be that affected at least soon. If you are an investor, it is … Continue reading

Tagged , , Leave a comment